Market Outlook
September 23, 2016
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open on a flat note considering global cues.
BSE Sensex
0.9
266
28,773
Nifty
1.0
90
8,867
US stocks moved higher with Nasdaq closing at a record high during Thursday’s
Mid Cap
1.4
183
13,295
session, adding to the strong gains in the previous session over Fed’s dovish
Small Cap
1.0
128
12,949
monetary policy statement. Telecom, consumer staples, and consumer discretionary
stocks led the charge. The US investors also ignored some disappointing U.S.
Bankex
1.5
339
23,035
economic data in light of the forward-looking nature of the Fed.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
UK’s FTSE index surged to a five week high during the session, before closing up
1.1% as a response to Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Shares of
Dow Jones
0.5
99
18,392
Glencore moved to 14-month high on rating upgrade and recent strength in
Nasdaq
0.8
44
5,340
commodity prices. Precious metals miners also joined the rally as gold prices soared
FTSE
1.1
77
6,911
to a two-week high.
Nikkei
1.9
315
16,808
Indian markets opened up on a strong note following the decision by the FOMC to
Hang Seng
0.4
90
23,760
hold rates at current levels. Auto and PSU bank indices led the rally and closed up
Shanghai Com
0.6
16
3,042
1.44% and 1.37% respectively. The IT index was the major loser for the session and
closed down 0.36%.
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
News Analysis
Advances
1,701
1,079
Airtel to invest `14,667cr in India and South-Asia
Declines
1,062
536
Adani slashes Australia project size to $4b
Unchanged
231
87
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Volumes (` Cr)
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
BSE
3,312
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
NSE
21,823
Refer Pg5 onwards
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
FII
508
4,318
44,987
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
MFs *
1,010
410
10,519
Amara Raja Batteries Auto & Auto Ancillary Accumulate
1,033
1,174
13.6
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
789
1,000
26.7
Bharat Electronics
Capital Goods
Accumulate
1,256
1,414
12.5
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Equitas Holdings
Financials
Buy
188
235
24.9
Auropharma
857
6.3
Navkar Corporation Others
Buy
194
265
36.6
Muthootfin
384
5.8
More Top Picks on Pg3
Bajfinance
1,127
5.4
Key Upcoming Events
Tv18Brdcst
45
5.2
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
Ramcocem
608
4.9
Reading
Expectations
Sep 23 US
Existing home sales
5.39
5.45
Sep 23 Germany
PMI Services
51.70
52.20
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Sep 26 US
New home sales
654.00
580.00
Aloktext
4
(3.0)
Sep 27 US
Consumer Confidence
101.10
98.50
Jktyre
143
(3.0)
Sep 29 Germany
Unemployment Change (000s)
(7.00)
Shriramcit
2,143
(2.3)
Sep 29 US
GDP QoQ (annualized)
1.10
1.40
Finolexind
466
(2.1)
Sep 30 UK
GDP YoY
2.20
6.(
More Events on Pg4
Edelweiss
119
(2.0)
As on September 22, 2016
*As on September 20, 2016
Market Outlook
September 23, 2016
News Analysis
Airtel to invest `14,667cr in India and South-Asia
Telecom operator Bharti Airtel will invest around `14,667cr in the Indian and
south Asian markets in the current financial year to its strengthen network
capabilities. The firm has already made a capital expenditure of `4,133cr in the
first quarter of FY17. Airtel last year announced to invest `60,000cr in three
years to upgrade its network to provide better quality services to customers.
Its data business in India has annualized revenues of around `14,134cr and
represents 23.7% in Q1FY17. Its voice segment has also shown significant growth
with minutes carried over the network rising by 8.3% YoY in India. The company is
a leader in India with revenue market share of 32% as of Q4 of FY16. Airtel is
present in 18 countries, with consolidated revenues of around `98,138cr in 2016.
Adani slashes Australia project size to $4bn
The Adani group has scaled down its Australian coal mine development project to
$4 bn from $16bn as falling coal prices and litigation by local environmental
activists have delayed construction for the past six years. The group has also
marked down the production target from 60 mtpa, announced in August 2010, to
25 mtpa. The group now plans to start construction by late 2017 and ship coal to
its plants in India by 2019, instead of selling it in Asia, according to the original
plan.
The Australian project faced problems from the begining. Ever since Australia’s
biggest coal mine development project was announced by the Adanis, coal prices
started falling from $90 a tonne in August 2010 to $67 a tonne now. There was
also opposition to the project from locals and activists, saying the construction of
the mine and a railway track would hit local flora and fauna.
Economic and Political News
Central Government appoints monetary policy committee to assist RBI in
setting interest rates
GST: Centre, states agree on timetable for April 1 roll out
Sebi to consider reducing IPO-listing gap to four days
Corporate News
L&T wins $99.7 million order for design and construction of high speed patrol
vessels with Vietnam Border Guard
Reliance Jio subscriber base crosses 10 mn
India's Bharat Financial Inclusion launches up to $113 mn share sale
Market Outlook
September 23, 2016
Top Picks
Large Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
17,648
1,033
1,174
13.6
products leading to market share gains in both the
automotive OEM and replacement segments.
Uptick in defense capex by government when coupled with
Bharat Electronics
30,152
1,256
1,414
12.5
BELs strong market positioning, indicate that good times are
ahead for BEL.
The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all
HCL Tech
1,11,365
789
1,000
26.7
the bad news.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14%
Infosys
2,43,132
1,059
1,370
29.4
to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Among the top 4 players in the consumer durables segment.
Bajaj Electricals
2,717
269
306
13.9
Improved profitability backed by turn around in E&P
segment. Strong order book lends earnings visibility.
Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
Blue Star
4,997
524
578
10.3
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI) consumer
Dewan Housing Finance
8,507
292
325
11.5
segment, the company has increased its presence in tier-II &
III cities where the growth opportunity is immense.
Strong loan growth backed by diversified loan portfolio and
adequate CAR. ROE & ROA likely to remain decent as risk of
Equitas Holdings
6,312
188
235
24.9
dilution remains low. Attractive valuations considering
growth.
Expectations of above average monsoon augurs well for
Goodyear India
1,436
623
684
9.8
Goodyear India as it derives ~50% of its turnover from farm
tyre segment.
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising
& circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a
Jagran Prakashan
6,121
187
225
20.1
radio business (Radio City) would also boost the company's
revenue growth.
Speedier execution and speedier sales, strong revenue
Mahindra Lifespace
1,845
450
522
16.1
visibilty in short-to-long run, attractive valuations
Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at ICD
Navkar Corporation
2,766
194
265
36.6
as well CFS augurs well for the company
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and
Radico Khaitan
1,432
108
125
16.1
favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers
provides additional comfort
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,212
1,292
1,469
13.7
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive
valuation.
Market leadership in Hindi news genre and no. 2 viewership
ranking in English news genre, exit from the radio business,
TV Today Network
1,867
313
363
16.0
and anticipated growth in ad spends by corporates to benefit
the stock.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 23, 2016
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Sep 23, 2016
1:00 PM Germany
PMI Services
Value
Sep P
51.70
52.10
7:30 PM
US
Consumer ConfidenceS.A./ 1985=100
Sep
101.10
98.50
Sep 26, 2016
1:00 PM Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Sep P
53.60
53.10
Sep 27, 2016
7:30 PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Aug
654.00
594.50
Sep 29, 2016
1:25 PM Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Sep
(7.00)
6:00 PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
2Q T
1.10
1.40
Sep 30, 2016
2:00 PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q F
2.20
Oct 01, 2016
6:30 AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Sep
50.40
50.50
Oct 03, 2016
2:00 PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Sep
53.30
Oct 04, 2016
11:00 AM
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
%
Oct 4
6.00
11:00 AM
India
RBI Repo rate
%
Oct 4
6.50
11:00 AM
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
%
Oct 4
4.00
Oct 07, 2016
2:00 PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Aug
2.10
6:00 PM
US
Unnemployment rate
% Sep
4.90
4.90
6:00 PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Sep
151.00
173.00
Oct 10, 2016
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Sep
(14.09)
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Sep
(0.30)
Oct 12, 2016
5:30 PM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Aug
(2.40)
Oct 13, 2016
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Sep
(2.80)
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Sep
(0.30)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 23, 2016
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
12.0
8.3
9.9
7.8
7.9
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.6
10.0
7.2
7.1
8.0
6.6
6.7
7.0
6.4
6.0
3.7
5.8
6.0
4.0
1.9
2.0
1.1
2.0
0.3
5.0
-
4.0
(2.0)
(0.9)
(1.3)
(1.6)
(4.0)
(2.4)
3.0
(3.4)
(6.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
55.0
7.0
6.1
5.7
5.8
5.8
54.0
6.0
5.4
5.6
5.5
5.0
5.3
5.1
53.0
4.8
5.0
4.4
52.0
4.0
51.0
50.0
3.0
49.0
2.0
48.0
1.0
47.0
-
46.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
5.0
7.00
0.0
6.50
(5.0)
6.00
(10.0)
5.50
(15.0)
5.00
(20.0)
4.50
(25.0)
4.00
(30.0)
3.50
(35.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 23, 2016
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.7
6.0
5.3
0.6
5.2
4.0
3.5
4.0
3.1
2.2
1.4
2.0
1.2
0.8
-
(2.0)
(0.6)
(4.0)
(3.8)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2016 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
10.0
7.5
8.0
6.5
6.0
4.9
4.4
4.0
3.0
2.4
1.9
1.5
2.0
1.1
0.6
0.5
(3.8)
(1.8)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 23, 2016
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
58,994
2.1
14.4
21.5
Russia
Micex
2,025
1.8
7.5
21.7
India
Nifty
8,867
2.3
7.6
13.8
China
Shanghai Composite
3,042
(1.3)
5.3
1.3
South Africa
Top 40
45,308
(1.8)
(4.6)
(0.2)
Mexico
Mexbol
47,975
(0.7)
4.0
12.6
Indonesia
LQ45
931
(0.3)
13.2
26.2
Malaysia
KLCI
1,670
(1.5)
3.4
4.1
Thailand
SET 50
961
(2.0)
6.7
7.1
USA
Dow Jones
18,392
(0.7)
3.4
13.5
UK
FTSE
6,911
1.2
9.0
13.1
Japan
Nikkei
16,808
1.6
5.3
(10.5)
Germany
DAX
10,674
0.8
11.7
12.6
France
CAC
4,510
2.0
9.8
1.9
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Stock Watch
September 23, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
225
-
4,378
1,937
2,164
13.3
14.3
9.0
11.0
25.0
20.5
4.4
3.8
18.4
19.8
2.2
2.0
United Phosphorus
Neutral
684
-
34,668
15,176
17,604
18.5
18.5
37.4
44.6
18.3
15.3
3.6
3.0
21.4
21.2
2.4
2.0
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Buy
84
111
23,891
22,407
26,022
10.6
10.6
5.2
6.4
16.1
13.1
3.6
3.1
23.6
24.7
1.2
1.0
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
2,926
-
84,654
25,093
27,891
19.5
19.2
143.9
162.5
20.3
18.0
5.7
4.9
30.3
29.4
3.1
2.7
Bharat Forge
Neutral
924
-
21,521
7,726
8,713
20.5
21.2
35.3
42.7
26.2
21.7
4.8
4.4
18.9
20.1
2.8
2.4
Eicher Motors
Neutral
24,809
-
67,384
16,583
20,447
17.5
18.0
598.0
745.2
41.5
33.3
14.2
10.8
41.2
38.3
3.6
2.9
Gabriel India
Neutral
120
-
1,723
1,544
1,715
9.0
9.3
5.4
6.3
22.2
19.0
4.2
3.7
18.9
19.5
1.1
0.9
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
3,539
-
70,661
31,253
35,198
15.3
15.0
172.3
192.1
20.5
18.4
7.5
6.4
38.9
37.0
2.1
1.9
Jamna Auto Industries Neutral
223
-
1,780
1,486
1,620
9.8
9.9
15.0
17.2
14.9
13.0
3.3
2.8
21.8
21.3
1.3
1.2
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
571
-
897
1,302
1,432
11.6
11.9
43.7
53.0
13.1
10.8
1.8
1.7
13.8
14.2
0.8
0.7
Mahindra and Mahindra Neutral
1,414
-
87,798
46,534
53,077
11.6
11.7
67.3
78.1
21.0
18.1
3.4
3.0
15.4
15.8
1.9
1.6
Maruti
Neutral
5,595
-
169,006
69,186
82,217
14.7
14.4
198.5
241.4
28.2
23.2
5.5
4.4
20.2
20.0
2.1
1.7
Minda Industries
Neutral
302
-
2,398
2,728
3,042
9.0
9.1
68.2
86.2
4.4
3.5
1.0
0.8
23.8
24.3
0.9
0.8
Motherson Sumi
Neutral
324
-
45,442
45,896
53,687
7.8
8.3
13.0
16.1
24.8
20.1
8.0
6.4
34.7
35.4
1.0
0.8
Rane Brake Lining
Neutral
1,298
-
1,027
511
562
11.3
11.5
28.1
30.9
46.2
42.0
7.0
6.4
15.3
15.0
2.1
1.9
Setco Automotive
Neutral
45
-
605
741
837
13.0
13.0
15.2
17.0
3.0
2.7
0.5
0.4
15.8
16.3
1.2
1.1
Tata Motors
Neutral
558
-
161,193
300,209
338,549
8.9
8.4
42.7
54.3
13.1
10.3
2.1
1.8
15.6
17.2
0.6
0.6
TVS Motor
Neutral
349
-
16,592
13,390
15,948
6.9
7.1
12.8
16.5
27.4
21.1
6.8
5.4
26.3
27.2
1.2
1.0
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
1,033
1,174
17,648
5,429
6,471
17.5
17.6
35.3
43.5
29.3
23.8
6.7
5.4
25.3
24.8
3.0
2.5
Exide Industries
Neutral
195
-
16,545
7,439
8,307
15.0
15.0
8.1
9.3
24.0
20.9
3.4
3.0
14.3
16.7
1.8
1.6
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
216
-
10,982
12,877
14,504
14.3
13.9
21.4
23.0
10.1
9.4
1.6
1.4
16.4
15.2
1.0
1.0
Ceat
Neutral
1,180
-
4,772
7,524
8,624
13.0
12.7
131.1
144.3
9.0
8.2
1.7
1.4
19.8
18.6
0.7
0.6
JK Tyres
Neutral
143
-
3,251
7,455
8,056
15.0
15.0
21.8
24.5
6.6
5.9
1.4
1.1
22.8
21.3
0.6
0.5
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
1,196
-
1,486
660
810
15.2
16.4
54.5
72.8
22.0
16.4
6.8
6.2
31.5
39.2
2.1
1.7
Subros
Neutral
133
-
795
1,488
1,681
11.7
11.9
6.4
7.2
20.7
18.5
2.2
2.0
10.8
11.4
0.8
0.7
Indag Rubber
Neutral
182
-
477
286
326
19.8
16.8
11.7
13.3
15.5
13.6
2.6
2.5
17.8
17.1
1.3
1.1
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
44
-
431
709
814
4.1
4.6
1.4
2.1
31.1
20.8
1.3
1.2
4.4
6.0
0.8
0.7
BEML
Buy
910
1,157
3,790
3,451
4,055
6.3
9.2
31.4
57.9
29.0
15.7
1.7
1.6
6.3
10.9
1.2
1.0
Bharat Electronics
Accumulate
1,256
1,414
30,152
8,137
9,169
16.8
17.2
58.7
62.5
21.4
20.1
3.3
3.0
44.6
46.3
2.6
2.4
Stock Watch
September 23, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
Capital Goods
Voltas
Neutral
380
-
12,560
6,511
7,514
7.9
8.7
12.9
16.3
29.4
23.3
5.3
4.6
16.7
18.5
1.7
1.5
BGR Energy
Neutral
117
-
845
16,567
33,848
6.0
5.6
7.8
5.9
15.0
19.9
0.9
0.8
4.7
4.2
0.2
0.1
BHEL
Neutral
147
-
36,004
28,797
34,742
-
2.8
2.3
6.9
64.0
21.3
1.1
1.1
1.3
4.8
0.9
0.6
Blue Star
Accumulate
524
578
4,997
4,351
5,024
6.4
7.1
17.2
20.6
30.5
25.4
19.9
16.5
23.1
24.1
1.2
1.0
Crompton Greaves
Neutral
82
-
5,108
5,777
6,120
5.9
7.0
3.3
4.5
24.7
18.1
1.1
1.0
4.4
5.9
0.8
0.7
Greaves Cotton
Neutral
133
-
3,239
1,755
1,881
16.8
16.9
7.8
8.5
17.0
15.6
3.4
3.2
20.6
20.9
1.5
1.4
Inox Wind
Buy
208
286
4,620
5,605
6,267
15.7
16.4
24.8
30.0
8.4
6.9
2.3
1.7
25.9
24.4
0.8
0.7
KEC International
Neutral
127
-
3,277
9,294
10,186
7.9
8.1
9.9
11.9
12.9
10.7
1.9
1.6
15.6
16.3
0.6
0.5
Thermax
Neutral
880
-
10,490
5,421
5,940
7.3
7.3
25.7
30.2
34.3
29.2
4.1
3.8
12.2
13.1
1.8
1.7
VATech Wabag
Buy
558
681
3,040
3,136
3,845
8.9
9.1
26.0
35.9
21.5
15.5
2.7
2.3
13.4
15.9
0.9
0.7
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,666
-
31,283
11,225
13,172
13.2
16.9
44.5
75.5
37.4
22.1
3.5
3.3
11.2
14.2
2.8
2.4
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
265
-
52,709
9,350
10,979
18.2
22.5
5.8
9.5
45.8
27.9
3.9
3.5
10.2
12.5
5.7
4.8
India Cements
Neutral
151
-
4,648
4,364
4,997
18.5
19.2
7.9
11.3
19.2
13.4
1.4
1.3
8.0
8.5
1.8
1.6
JK Cement
Neutral
802
-
5,608
4,398
5,173
15.5
17.5
31.2
55.5
25.7
14.5
3.1
2.7
12.0
15.5
1.8
1.5
J K Lakshmi Cement
Neutral
473
-
5,567
2,913
3,412
14.5
19.5
7.5
22.5
63.1
21.0
3.9
3.3
12.5
18.0
2.5
2.1
Orient Cement
Neutral
201
-
4,124
2,114
2,558
18.5
20.5
8.1
11.3
24.9
17.8
3.7
3.1
9.0
14.0
2.6
2.0
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
3,987
-
109,412
25,768
30,385
21.0
23.5
111.0
160.0
35.9
24.9
4.6
4.0
13.5
15.8
4.3
3.6
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
106
-
3,472
8,946
10,017
31.0
31.6
8.1
9.1
13.0
11.6
0.5
0.5
4.2
5.0
3.7
3.5
KNR Constructions
Accumulate
703
802
1,977
1,385
1,673
14.7
14.0
41.2
48.5
17.1
14.5
3.2
2.8
14.9
15.2
1.5
1.2
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
1,499
1,700
139,708
67,665
77,249
10.7
11.5
57.3
71.2
26.2
21.1
2.4
2.3
12.6
14.3
2.2
1.9
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
171
-
8,257
705
788
52.2
51.7
5.0
5.6
34.2
30.5
3.4
3.0
11.2
11.2
11.8
10.1
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
87
-
4,839
8,842
9,775
9.1
8.8
5.3
6.4
16.4
13.6
1.3
1.2
8.2
9.1
0.7
0.6
PNC Infratech
Buy
122
143
3,123
2,350
2,904
13.1
13.2
9.0
8.8
13.5
13.8
0.5
0.4
15.9
13.9
1.5
1.2
Simplex Infra
Neutral
338
-
1,673
6,829
7,954
10.5
10.5
31.4
37.4
10.8
9.0
1.1
1.0
9.9
13.4
0.7
0.6
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
492
-
723
1,801
2,219
12.7
14.6
72.1
113.9
6.8
4.3
1.3
1.1
16.8
11.9
0.4
0.3
Sadbhav Engineering
Neutral
290
-
4,982
3,598
4,140
10.3
10.6
9.0
11.9
32.3
24.4
3.4
3.0
9.9
11.9
1.7
1.4
NBCC
Neutral
253
-
15,162
7,428
9,549
7.9
8.6
8.2
11.0
30.8
23.0
1.5
1.2
28.2
28.7
1.8
1.3
MEP Infra
Neutral
43
-
695
1,877
1,943
30.6
29.8
3.0
4.2
14.3
10.2
6.9
4.7
0.6
0.6
1.8
1.6
SIPL
Neutral
113
-
3,994
1,036
1,252
65.5
66.2
(8.4)
(5.6)
4.3
4.9
(22.8)
(15.9)
11.8
9.8
Stock Watch
September 23, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
Construction
Engineers India
Neutral
262
-
8,816
1,725
1,935
16.0
19.1
11.4
13.9
23.0
18.8
3.2
3.1
13.4
15.3
4.1
3.7
Financials
Axis Bank
Neutral
592
-
141,284
58,081
66,459
3.5
3.5
32.4
44.6
18.3
13.3
2.4
2.1
13.6
16.5
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
169
-
39,044
19,980
23,178
1.8
1.8
11.5
17.3
14.7
9.8
1.7
1.4
8.3
10.1
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
308
-
16,719
15,225
16,836
1.8
1.8
14.5
28.0
21.2
11.0
1.5
1.2
5.8
8.5
-
-
Dewan Housing Finance Accumulate
292
325
8,507
2,225
2,688
2.9
2.9
29.7
34.6
9.8
8.4
1.6
1.4
16.1
16.8
-
-
Equitas Holdings
Buy
188
235
6,312
939
1,281
11.7
11.5
5.8
8.2
32.5
23.0
2.8
2.5
10.9
11.5
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
73
-
12,577
9,353
10,623
2.9
2.9
4.4
5.8
16.6
12.6
1.6
1.4
9.5
11.0
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,414
-
223,469
11,475
13,450
3.4
3.4
45.3
52.5
31.2
26.9
6.0
5.3
20.2
20.5
-
-
HDFC Bank
Neutral
1,308
-
331,063
46,097
55,433
4.5
4.5
58.4
68.0
22.4
19.2
3.9
3.3
18.8
18.6
-
-
ICICI Bank
Neutral
276
-
160,285
39,029
45,903
3.3
3.3
16.7
16.3
16.5
16.9
2.0
1.9
10.1
12.4
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Neutral
583
-
29,427
3,712
4,293
2.6
2.5
39.0
46.0
15.0
12.7
2.8
2.4
19.9
20.1
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
141
-
27,697
23,532
23,595
2.3
2.4
6.8
12.6
20.7
11.2
3.2
2.3
3.3
6.5
-
-
RBL Bank
Accumulate
302
325
11,174
1,783
2,309
2.6
2.6
12.7
16.4
23.8
18.4
2.6
2.3
12.8
13.3
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
23
-
3,139
6,435
7,578
2.5
2.5
2.7
3.1
8.6
7.5
1.1
0.9
10.1
11.2
-
-
St Bk of India
Neutral
257
-
199,775
88,650
98,335
2.6
2.6
13.5
18.8
19.1
13.7
1.8
1.6
7.0
8.5
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
146
-
10,019
13,450
14,925
2.3
2.3
25.5
34.5
5.7
4.2
0.8
0.7
7.5
10.2
-
-
Yes Bank
Neutral
1,246
-
52,467
8,978
11,281
3.3
3.4
74.0
90.0
16.8
13.9
3.2
2.7
17.0
17.2
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
1,192
-
114,370
17,128
18,978
16.8
16.4
19.1
20.7
62.4
57.6
21.7
20.5
34.8
35.5
6.4
5.8
Britannia
Neutral
3,408
-
40,892
9,795
11,040
14.6
14.9
80.3
94.0
42.5
36.3
17.5
13.5
41.2
-
4.0
3.5
Colgate
Neutral
975
-
26,523
4,605
5,149
23.4
23.4
23.8
26.9
41.0
36.3
22.7
17.7
64.8
66.8
5.6
5.0
Dabur India
Neutral
286
-
50,320
8,315
9,405
19.8
20.7
8.1
9.2
35.3
31.1
9.8
8.2
31.6
31.0
5.9
5.2
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,260
-
26,327
4,350
4,823
21.2
21.4
179.2
196.5
34.9
31.9
9.3
7.9
27.1
26.8
5.4
4.8
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,592
-
54,221
10,235
11,428
18.4
18.6
41.1
44.2
38.7
36.0
8.6
7.3
24.9
24.8
5.6
4.9
HUL
Neutral
910
-
196,990
35,252
38,495
17.6
17.4
20.4
21.9
44.6
41.6
36.6
32.1
82.2
77.3
5.4
5.0
ITC
Accumulate
255
283
308,047
40,059
44,439
39.0
39.2
9.1
10.1
28.1
25.3
7.6
6.7
27.2
26.5
7.3
6.5
Marico
Neutral
286
-
36,925
6,430
7,349
18.8
19.5
6.4
7.7
44.7
37.2
13.5
11.4
33.2
32.5
5.7
4.9
Nestle*
Neutral
6,486
-
62,540
10,073
11,807
20.7
21.5
124.8
154.2
52.0
42.1
21.3
19.2
34.8
36.7
5.9
5.0
Tata Global
Neutral
139
-
8,766
8,675
9,088
9.8
9.8
7.4
8.2
18.8
16.9
2.1
2.0
7.9
8.1
0.9
0.9
Procter & Gamble
Accumulate
6,883
7,369
22,344
2,939
3,342
23.2
23.0
146.2
163.7
47.1
42.1
105.4
101.1
25.3
23.5
7.0
6.1
Hygiene
Stock Watch
September 23, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
789
1,000
111,365
49,242
57,168
20.5
20.5
55.7
64.1
14.2
12.3
2.9
2.2
20.3
17.9
2.1
1.7
Infosys
Buy
1,059
1,370
243,132
69,934
79,025
27.5
27.5
64.8
72.0
16.3
14.7
3.6
3.3
22.0
22.3
2.9
2.5
TCS
Buy
2,378
3,004
468,499
121,684
136,286
27.3
27.3
135.0
150.1
17.6
15.8
5.9
5.4
33.2
33.9
3.7
3.2
Tech Mahindra
Buy
455
700
44,147
30,347
33,685
17.0
17.0
37.5
41.3
12.1
11.0
2.7
2.3
21.8
20.7
1.2
1.0
Wipro
Buy
482
680
117,040
51,631
55,822
21.7
17.9
35.9
36.9
13.4
13.1
2.8
2.6
19.0
18.1
2.0
1.7
Media
D B Corp
Neutral
401
-
7,369
2,297
2,590
27.4
28.2
21.0
23.4
19.1
17.1
4.5
3.9
23.7
23.1
3.0
2.6
HT Media
Neutral
83
-
1,934
2,693
2,991
12.6
12.9
7.9
9.0
10.5
9.2
0.9
0.8
7.8
8.3
0.3
0.2
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
187
225
6,121
2,355
2,635
28.0
28.0
10.8
12.5
17.3
15.0
3.8
3.3
21.7
21.7
2.6
2.3
Sun TV Network
Neutral
508
-
20,021
2,850
3,265
70.1
71.0
26.2
30.4
19.4
16.7
5.0
4.4
24.3
25.6
6.4
5.4
Hindustan Media
Neutral
285
-
2,091
1,016
1,138
24.3
25.2
27.3
30.1
10.4
9.5
2.0
1.8
16.2
15.8
1.4
1.2
Ventures
TV Today Network
Buy
313
363
1,867
637
743
27.5
27.5
18.4
21.4
17.0
14.6
3.0
2.5
17.4
17.2
2.5
2.1
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Neutral
328
-
206,987
84,638
94,297
21.4
22.3
24.5
27.1
13.4
12.1
5.6
5.3
42.6
46.0
2.0
1.8
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
223
-
94,140
14,252
18,465
55.9
48.3
15.8
21.5
14.1
10.4
2.3
2.0
17.0
20.7
6.4
5.0
Hindalco
Neutral
154
-
31,811
107,899
112,095
7.4
8.2
9.2
13.0
16.7
11.9
0.8
0.8
4.8
6.6
0.8
0.7
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,761
-
42,571
53,201
58,779
16.1
16.2
130.6
153.7
13.5
11.5
1.8
1.6
14.0
14.4
1.6
1.4
NMDC
Neutral
103
-
40,896
6,643
7,284
44.4
47.7
7.1
7.7
14.5
13.4
1.3
1.2
8.8
9.2
3.9
3.5
SAIL
Neutral
49
-
20,196
47,528
53,738
(0.7)
2.1
(1.9)
2.6
18.8
0.5
0.5
(1.6)
3.9
1.3
1.1
Vedanta
Neutral
169
-
50,000
71,744
81,944
19.2
21.7
13.4
20.1
12.6
8.4
1.1
1.0
8.4
11.3
1.1
0.8
Tata Steel
Neutral
376
-
36,547
121,374
121,856
7.2
8.4
18.6
34.3
20.2
11.0
1.3
1.2
6.1
10.1
0.9
0.9
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
195
-
36,504
9,127
10,632
4.3
20.6
8.8
11.7
22.1
16.6
0.7
0.7
3.3
4.2
5.4
4.5
GAIL
Neutral
390
-
49,439
56,220
65,198
9.3
10.1
27.1
33.3
14.4
11.7
1.3
1.2
9.3
10.7
1.1
0.9
ONGC
Neutral
259
-
221,972
137,222
152,563
15.0
21.8
19.5
24.1
13.3
10.8
1.1
1.1
8.5
10.1
1.9
1.7
Indian Oil Corp
Neutral
579
-
140,651
373,359
428,656
5.9
5.5
54.0
59.3
10.7
9.8
1.7
1.5
16.0
15.6
0.5
0.4
Reliance Industries
Neutral
1,088
-
352,665
301,963
358,039
12.1
12.6
87.7
101.7
12.4
10.7
1.3
1.2
10.7
11.3
1.6
1.4
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
653
-
12,304
3,483
4,083
20.2
21.4
24.3
30.4
26.9
21.5
6.1
4.9
25.5
25.3
3.4
2.9
Aurobindo Pharma
Accumulate
857
877
50,158
15,720
18,078
23.7
23.7
41.4
47.3
20.7
18.1
5.4
4.2
29.6
26.1
3.2
2.8
Aventis*
Neutral
4,294
-
9,890
2,357
2,692
17.3
17.3
153.5
169.2
28.0
25.4
4.7
3.8
25.8
28.4
3.9
3.2
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
392
-
40,105
11,126
13,148
22.0
22.0
17.1
20.0
22.9
19.6
5.9
4.7
28.8
26.6
3.6
2.9
Cipla
Sell
609
490
48,933
15,378
18,089
17.4
18.4
21.6
27.2
28.2
22.4
3.7
3.2
13.7
15.2
3.3
2.8
Stock Watch
September 23, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
Pharmaceuticals
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
3,148
-
52,161
16,043
18,119
23.1
24.7
126.0
157.8
25.0
20.0
3.7
3.2
15.7
17.1
3.2
2.8
Dishman Pharma
Sell
218
45
3,515
1,718
1,890
22.7
22.8
9.5
11.3
22.9
19.3
2.2
2.0
10.1
10.9
2.3
2.0
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,795
-
23,674
3,528
3,811
16.6
18.8
51.8
59.4
54.0
47.1
14.4
14.4
26.3
30.6
6.6
6.1
Indoco Remedies
Sell
334
225
3,080
1,112
1,289
18.2
18.2
13.2
15.6
25.3
21.4
4.5
3.8
19.2
19.2
2.8
2.4
Ipca labs
Neutral
613
-
7,738
3,303
3,799
15.3
15.3
17.3
19.7
35.5
31.1
3.1
2.8
9.1
9.4
2.4
2.1
Lupin
Buy
1,528
1,809
68,902
15,912
18,644
26.4
26.7
58.1
69.3
26.3
22.1
5.1
4.2
21.4
20.9
4.4
3.7
Sun Pharma
Buy
787
944
189,286
31,129
35,258
30.0
30.9
28.0
32.8
28.1
24.0
4.3
3.6
18.7
18.9
5.6
4.8
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
76
-
20,542
36,916
39,557
17.4
27.1
5.1
6.3
14.9
12.1
1.3
1.2
9.0
10.3
1.6
1.4
NTPC
Neutral
157
-
129,454
86,605
95,545
17.5
20.8
11.8
13.4
13.3
11.7
1.4
1.3
10.5
11.1
2.8
2.8
Power Grid
Neutral
178
-
93,332
25,763
29,762
74.3
73.1
14.8
17.3
12.1
10.3
1.9
1.7
16.9
17.5
7.9
7.5
Real Estate
Prestige Estate
Accumulate
205
210
7,669
4,707
5,105
25.2
26.0
10.3
13.0
19.9
15.7
1.6
1.5
10.3
10.2
2.7
2.4
MLIFE
Buy
450
522
1,845
1,152
1,300
22.7
24.6
29.9
35.8
15.0
12.6
1.1
1.1
7.6
8.6
2.3
1.9
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
327
-
130,795
105,086
114,808
34.5
34.7
12.2
16.4
26.8
20.0
1.8
1.7
6.8
8.4
2.1
1.9
Idea Cellular
Neutral
84
-
30,085
40,133
43,731
37.2
37.1
6.4
6.5
13.1
12.9
1.1
1.0
8.2
7.6
1.8
1.5
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
4,750
-
10,093
3,153
3,583
14.1
14.4
152.2
182.7
31.2
26.0
153.2
130.9
25.6
26.1
2.9
2.5
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
269
306
2,717
5,099
5,805
5.6
5.9
11.4
14.6
23.6
18.4
3.2
2.8
13.4
15.1
0.5
0.5
Finolex Cables
Neutral
437
-
6,677
2,883
3,115
12.0
12.1
14.2
18.6
30.8
23.5
16.4
14.3
15.8
14.6
2.0
1.8
Goodyear India*
Accumulate
623
684
1,436
1,598
1,704
10.4
10.2
49.4
52.6
12.6
11.8
58.2
51.1
18.2
17.0
0.6
82.8
Hitachi
Neutral
1,460
-
3,970
2,081
2,433
8.8
8.9
33.4
39.9
43.7
36.6
35.3
29.4
22.1
21.4
1.9
1.6
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
348
-
6,306
1,440
2,052
11.5
13.0
8.5
10.0
41.0
34.8
9.9
9.2
18.6
19.3
4.5
3.1
Page Industries
Neutral
15,083
-
16,824
2,450
3,124
20.1
17.6
299.0
310.0
50.5
48.7
335.9
256.4
47.1
87.5
7.0
5.5
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
449
-
5,394
2,085
2,469
9.2
8.2
7.6
8.0
59.4
56.5
23.0
19.7
17.9
18.8
2.5
2.1
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
1,292
1,469
1,212
1,799
2,040
11.6
11.7
104.9
122.4
12.3
10.6
2.0
1.7
16.4
16.4
0.8
0.7
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
599
-
1,053
1,440
1,537
9.2
9.0
40.6
42.6
14.8
14.1
37.7
34.2
12.3
11.6
0.7
0.6
TVS Srichakra
Neutral
2,899
-
2,220
2,304
2,614
13.7
13.8
231.1
266.6
12.5
10.9
325.8
256.5
33.9
29.3
1.0
0.8
HSIL
Neutral
348
-
2,517
2,384
2,515
15.8
16.3
15.3
19.4
22.8
18.0
22.6
19.5
7.8
9.3
1.2
1.1
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
352
-
5,090
2,554
2,800
9.9
10.0
10.5
12.1
33.5
29.1
14.0
13.2
10.7
11.7
1.4
1.2
Ltd
M M Forgings
Neutral
425
-
513
546
608
20.4
20.7
41.3
48.7
10.3
8.7
58.2
51.5
16.6
17.0
0.8
0.7
Banco Products (India)
Neutral
224
-
1,600
1,353
1,471
12.3
12.4
14.5
16.3
15.4
13.7
21.3
19.2
14.5
14.6
1.1
118.7
Stock Watch
September 23, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
zOthers
Competent Automobiles Neutral
194
-
119
1,137
1,256
3.1
2.7
28.0
23.6
6.9
8.2
37.4
33.8
14.3
11.5
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,356
-
2,024
1,995
2,165
10.7
10.4
69.8
80.6
19.4
16.8
77.5
67.3
16.6
16.5
1.0
0.9
Visaka Industries
Neutral
202
-
320
1,051
1,138
10.3
10.4
21.0
23.1
9.6
8.7
25.9
24.2
9.0
9.2
0.6
0.5
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
197
-
1,512
2,671
2,911
8.5
8.8
13.9
15.7
14.3
12.6
2.0
1.7
13.7
13.8
0.7
0.6
India
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
63
-
690
1,482
1,660
13.7
14.5
3.9
5.8
16.2
10.9
3.8
3.5
7.8
10.9
0.8
0.7
Surya Roshni
Neutral
231
-
1,012
3,342
3,625
7.8
7.5
17.3
19.8
13.4
11.7
25.4
20.4
10.5
10.8
0.5
0.5
MT Educare
Neutral
136
-
542
366
417
17.7
18.2
9.4
10.8
14.5
12.6
3.2
2.8
22.2
22.3
1.4
1.2
Radico Khaitan
Buy
108
125
1,432
1,659
1,802
13.0
13.2
6.3
7.4
17.0
14.6
1.5
1.4
8.6
9.3
1.3
1.2
Garware Wall Ropes
Neutral
522
-
1,142
873
938
12.9
13.1
30.9
34.9
16.9
14.9
2.7
2.3
15.7
15.2
1.2
1.1
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
382
-
2,159
287
355
38.0
40.0
11.3
14.2
33.8
26.9
4.8
4.2
21.4
23.9
7.3
5.9
Linc Pen & Plastics
Neutral
271
-
401
382
420
9.3
9.5
13.5
15.7
20.1
17.3
3.4
3.0
17.1
17.3
1.1
1.0
The Byke Hospitality
Neutral
164
-
656
287
384
20.5
20.5
7.6
10.7
21.5
15.3
4.5
3.6
20.7
23.5
2.3
1.7
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
893
-
32,182
21,122
26,005
14.5
27.6
110.7
132.1
8.1
6.8
48.3
34.5
168.5
201.1
1.5
1.1
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
232
-
4,769
2,964
3,260
20.5
21.2
4.7
8.0
-
28.9
2.7
2.5
5.5
8.5
2.0
1.8
Ltd
Navneet Education
Neutral
102
-
2,431
1,062
1,147
24.0
24.0
6.1
6.6
16.8
15.4
3.4
3.1
20.6
19.8
2.4
2.2
Navkar Corporation
Buy
194
265
2,766
408
612
42.9
42.3
6.8
11.5
28.6
16.9
2.0
1.8
6.9
10.5
7.9
5.2
UFO Moviez
Neutral
477
-
1,317
619
685
33.2
33.4
30.0
34.9
15.9
13.7
2.2
1.9
13.8
13.9
1.8
1.5
VRL Logistics
Neutral
296
-
2,701
1,902
2,119
16.7
16.6
14.6
16.8
20.3
17.6
4.5
3.9
21.9
22.2
1.5
1.3
Team Lease Serv.
Neutral
1,113
-
1,903
3,229
4,001
1.5
1.8
22.8
32.8
48.9
33.9
5.2
4.5
10.7
13.4
0.5
0.4
S H Kelkar & Co.
Neutral
305
-
4,413
1,036
1,160
15.1
15.0
6.1
7.2
50.0
42.5
5.3
4.9
10.7
11.5
4.2
3.7
Quick Heal
Neutral
232
-
1,627
408
495
27.3
27.0
7.7
8.8
30.0
26.4
2.8
2.8
9.3
10.6
3.0
2.5
Narayana Hrudaya
Neutral
310
-
6,343
1,873
2,166
11.5
11.7
2.6
4.0
117.4
78.3
7.2
6.5
6.1
8.3
3.6
3.1
Manpasand Bever.
Neutral
739
-
3,700
836
1,087
19.6
19.4
16.9
23.8
43.8
31.0
5.3
4.6
12.0
14.8
4.0
3.0
Parag Milk Foods
Neutral
313
-
2,634
1,919
2,231
9.3
9.6
9.5
12.9
33.2
24.2
5.2
4.2
15.5
17.5
1.6
1.4
Mirza International
Buy
90
113
1,087
1,024
1,148
18.0
18.0
6.9
8.0
13.1
11.3
2.2
1.9
16.6
16.2
1.2
1.1
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on September 22, 2016
Market Outlook
September 23, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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